Nathan Azoulay

Research Approach

A practical route from a real decision to evidence that can be examined, challenged and used.

01 · Decision Test

Start with the action, not the algorithm.

Before a model is selected, the work needs a decision that is specific enough to inspect. The Decision Test turns a broad ambition into an operational question: what is being decided, by whom, at what moment, and with what consequence if the signal is wrong?

Worked example · insurance reserving

A vague request such as “predict which claims will close” becomes a narrower support question: “Can the team prioritise open files for review when capacity is limited, without automating the closure decision itself?” The difference sets the target, the acceptable error and the role of human judgement.

Decision brief

A prediction task is only useful when its output changes a defined action without hiding who remains accountable for the final decision.

  1. 01
    Name the action

    Describe the next action a person or team could take after seeing the result.

  2. 02
    Define the timing

    Fix the moment at which the information must be available to be useful.

  3. 03
    Make the error concrete

    Ask what false positives and false negatives change in the real workflow.

  4. 04
    Set the boundary

    Write down what the system must never decide on its own.

Sources & rationale